Orbán, definitively a 中国朋友 ?
B.F.G. Fabrègue, Ph.D. Fellow in Law & Pawel Morrison de la Bassetière, Ms. Economics. The article was originally proposed to Blue Europe board on the 07/10/2021. Final version reviewed by Manel Bernado Arjona and G. Combot.
When Angela Merkel will leave power in the next few weeks, the longest term holder elected leader still in power in the EU will be Victor Orbán. Orbán actually came to power for the first time in 1998, only to lose the elections 4 year after , and get definitively the power back in 2010. Born in a protestant family in a Roman catholic country, Orbán started as one of the NATO best supporters, only to progressively back down. Yet, while Hungary will probably not leave the EU, its leader is in a heavy confrontational stance with the governing bodies of the Union. How have the relations been degrading that much? What choices has Orbán taken for the future of Hungary?
An (mostly) impeccable economic policy
To understand what is going on in Hungary, we must first understand that Hungary has been enjoying, since president Orbán’s arrival to power, a significant rise and economic conditions improvement. President Orbán has done in general a rather good job with the economy, and it’s one of the main reason he enjoys such a massive support. Some of that has been done thanks to the EU (the EU grants and support have been massive in some fields), but it has been mainly by a somewhat liberal yet supportive economic policies, which have greatly supported the country growth. Hungary has a below-average tax burden of the EU, with tax revenue in Hungary standing at 36.5% of GDP in 2019, seven points below EU average — but more significant is the continuous decrease of the tax burden since Orbán’s election, starting at over 46% and decreasing ever since. One of the poorest regions of the Soviet block, it has now among the highest GDP per capita (after Czechia, Slovakia and the Baltic Countries) among ex-soviet countries. And the best seems yet to come.
The coming decade will bring “great opportunities” for central Europe, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Wednesday (the 29/09 ) in Usti nad Labem, Czech Republic, following meetings with his Czech counterpart Andrej Babis. Orbán stated during a joint press conference with Babis that, although central Europe was previously believed to be powerless without Western Europe, it is now Western Europe’s economies that cannot function without center Europe, which is the “locomotive of the Union”. The region’s political and economic weight will continue to grow, but only with the continuation of Visegrad cooperation, he stated.
Orbán stated that the Czech Republic is “one step ahead of us” in terms of eliminating unemployment, adding that Hungary aspires to have a debt rate as low as its northern neighbor. But even by that standards, Hungary is not in such a terrible situation: Hungary’s unemployment rate increased to 4.0 percent in August, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and 0.2 percentage point from a year ago, according to figures issued Tuesday by the Central Statistical Office (KSH). This is, comparing to the western EU nations, incredible. The National Employment Service (NFSZ) recorded 256,000 registered job searchers at the end of August, a decrease of 25.8 percent from a year earlier. Additionally, the average wage in Hungary is expected to reach EUR 1,415 by next year (in Gross average monthly salaries terms ), which while being still very low compared to other EU countries, marks a net progress in a post pandemic economic .
A country looking at its own border to start with
At the same conference, Orbán stated that his visit today was focused at bolstering the Visegrád Four’s Czech-Hungarian axis of cooperation, noting that the V4 cannot function without the Czech Republic’s commitment to the group. “The Visegrád Group need the Czech Republic’s strength and political influence,” Orbán stated. Many of them will travel through the Balkans and Hungary, he said, adding that Hungary will continue to protect its own borders in the same way that Europe would. Hungary is prepared to work in the future in close, amicable cooperation with Andrej Babis’s government based on mutual respect, Orbán stated. In general, as we already highlighted in our multiple papers about the Three Seas Initiative, the Central European block is developing together. Orbán stated that economic cooperation between the Czech Republic and Hungary had reached unprecedented heights.
This is mostly true, both with Czech Republic and the Visegrad Group in general, as the volume of bilateral commerce increased by 26% this year, and Hungary now has 330 Czech enterprises as foreign investors, employing several thousand people, he said, adding that Hungary aims to expand collaboration in the telecommunications, agricultural, energy, and defense sectors. The latest example of this general cooperation can be found 2 days after the summit in Czechia. SkyModra Aero Vodochody, a Czech maker of light combat and training aircraft, has been acquired by HSC Aerojet, a joint venture between Hungarian investor Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky and Czech corporation Omnipol, according to the website of local business daily E15. HSC Aerojet acquired 100% of Aero Vodochody, which comprises the Vodochody airport, pursuant to a July deal. Dieter John, the former CEO of Vodochody, has been replaced by Viktor Sotona, the CEO of Omnipol group member ERA, which manufactures surveillance and reconnaissance technology. “Aero will continue to invest in all three pillars of its business: aircraft development and manufacturing, aircraft repair and maintenance, and the aerostructures program,” Sotona stated. When Aero Vodochody was privatized in 2007, the Penta Group acquired it.
Rising conflits with the Western EU
Always at in Usti nad Labem, Orbán also called out the EU. “We, central Europeans, are destined for prosperity and will flourish if given the opportunity. We are not seeking further assistance, but rather equitable treatment,” he stated.” It is, however, unjust that eight member states have not yet received access to the EU’s post-pandemic rehabilitation budget”, Orbán stated. “This is not a problem of money, but of an inability to compete on equal terms,” he explained. The European Commission makes a distinction between member states, and those who get support eventually fall behind in competition, Orbán stated. If the EU ensures equitable treatment, refrains from abusing its powers, and acts responsibly, central Europe’s success story will continue, he continued. “We are engaged in three key conflicts with Brussels,” Orbán are incapable or unwilling to secure their borders and allow migrants to enter freely. “All countries should protect their borders and should seek assistance if they are unable to do so,” he said.
But is Orbán’s vision truth or propaganda? It is for sure a major element of the government communication. Hard to tell — and we won’t take any position -, but for sure not all governments inside the EU support the Hungarian model.
Conflict has been increasing for the last 5 years. During the last EU Commission selection, the previous minister of Justice, László Trócsányi , was probably refused as an EU commissioner because of his loyalty to Orbán. While the relations between Hungary and the others Europeans country has never been idyllic, the tension suddenly exploded in June of this year. Hungary’s parliament passed a law banning gay people from featuring in school educational materials or TV shows for under-18s, as Viktor Orbán’s ruling party intensified its campaign . The measures have been likened by critics to Russia’s 2013 law against “gay propaganda” .
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