The 2020 Belarussian Crisis — Part II
An article of a Belarussian source. Fact checking by B.F.G. Fabrègue.
The question everybody may ask about the Belarus crisis is self evident . Is this crisis a “colored revolution” i.e. a foreign organised action toward destabilisation of the government? The answer is quite simple and clear : Yes… but it doesn’t matter. There is organic support for reform, and yet Lukashenko will keep the power. Here we dive into the deep trends of the crisis.
The Source of Lukashenko legitimacy
Lukashenko’s legitimacy is based primarily on his ability to maintain economic and social stability in Belarus. As such, the social contract has been damaged through his attacks on the unemployed and non-response to the coronavirus economic crisis. On the one hand, this damage will be difficult to repair, especially given Lukashenko’s stubborn personality. When you add the structural weaknesses in the Belarusian economy and constant disputes with Russia to the equation, the situation is more likely to get worse than better.
On the other hand, the economy is not collapsing and elite support for Lukashenko is showing only slight cracks. Belarus has a very cozy PPP GDP, which doesn’t translate in nominal GDP do to lack of integration, but allowing living standards similar to Russia and higher than some Central European countries. Structural factors generally favor Lukashenko. Those include Lukashenko’s control over most of the economy, weak opposition parties, low likelihood of outside support for regime change, and a loyal security apparatus that has shown a willingness to repress the population.
Read the rest of the article on our website.
